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I might have to revise my estimate for when the first Turing test will be passed, to be more optimistic. We're starting to come really close!

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4934858.ece

"I was one of those judges, and yesterday, I was fooled. I mistook Eugene for a real human being. In fact, and perhaps this is worse, he was so convincing that I assumed that the human being with whom I was simultaneously conversing was a computer."

"In Computing Machinery and Intelligence, Turing suggested that a computer could be said to be thinking if, in a text-based conversation, it was impossible to distinguish its responses from those of a human. He predicted that by the end of the century, computers would have a 30 percent chance of being mistaken for a human being in five minutes of text-based conversation."

Looks like Turing's prediction was about 8 or 9 years too short. (Well, except that to really know it's at the 25-30% level you need to do it again and again... which hasn't been done.) But the real challenge will be getting all the way from 25% up to 50% (to where the best the judge can do is literally toss a coin to try and guess which is the computer and which is the human)... this may take several more decades. Or it could happen within the next decade. Either way, it's gonna be damn interesting to watch!

Comments

( 2 comments — Leave a comment )
malathion
Oct. 17th, 2008 02:56 am (UTC)
Anywhere we can read the transcripts?
spoonless
Oct. 18th, 2008 08:32 am (UTC)
I haven't seen a transcript of the winner this year, only a snippet or two of different ones that didn't look very impressive (like the screencap at the top of the article I linked to). But here is a partial transcript of one from two years ago that was pretty impressive:

http://spoonless.livejournal.com/93710.html
( 2 comments — Leave a comment )

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